Для тех, кто пропустил: основатель McAfee Security и претендент на пост президента США от Либертарианской партии в 2016 году- Джон Макафи опубликовал летом твит, в котором обещал съесть свой половой орган, если биткоин не достигнет отметки в $500 000 к концу 2020 года. Однако, в конце ноября он внезапно решил повысить ставку — цена в $1 000 000 долларов через три года. Давайте разберемся, какую модель он использовал для анализа криптовалюты, и каковы его шансы на успех.
Прогноз Джона Макафи выглядит примерно так
Каким способом обычно пользуются для расчета будущей стоимости? Индикаторы и волны Эллиота позволяют делать предположения на достаточно коротком промежутке времени, и поэтому в ход идут регрессии: линейные, логарифмические, полиномиальные и т. д. Таким же образом специалисты вычисляют, к примеру, рост популяции животных в регионе. На сайте bitcoinforecast, по-всей видимости, используя полиномиальную регрессию, подсчитали цену биткоина к апрелю 2018 года в размере $33 275, а сегодня, по их мнению, расчетная стоимость составляет $11 880 против реального курса в $16 600.
Прогноз bitcoinforecast
Если мы продолжим данный ценовой ряд, то получим результаты порядка $70 000, $270 000 и $800 000 к конце 2018, 2019 и 2020 лет, соответственно. Невероятно оптимистичные цифры, описывающие скорее раздувающийся пузырь, а не финансовый актив, но и они не позволят Джону Макафи сохранить достоинство. Конечно, рост котировок происходит за счет распространения битка, однако, я не уверен как в росте числа пользователей на достаточную величину для подобного взлета курса, так и в том, что криптовалюту можно так анализировать.
Логарифмическая регрессия
Можно вспомнить также известную картинку, гуляющую на форумах с 2014 года, где были произведены достаточно точные прогнозы по цене битка с помощью логарифмической регрессии. На мой взгляд, полученные результаты куда больше похожи на реальность, учитывая характер распространения технологии среди населения.
Причем, если мы будем нагружать эту нехитрую формулу новыми переменными, например, стоимостью электроэнергии по аналогии с расчетами справедливой стоимости золота, где используют стоимость добычи металла, то получим совсем печальные цифры. Подсчеты будут настолько сильно отличаться от реального курса, что желание использовать фундаментальный анализ для прогноза цены битка исчезнет полностью.
Важно понимать, по мере роста цены битка, помимо остальных обстоятельств важную роль начнет играть психологический фактор. Согласно опросам cointelegraph, в среднем ходлеры планируют продать биткоин, когда цена достигнет порядка $196 000.
И последнее. Давайте представим, что биткоин действительно заменит золото. Все запасы благородного металла сейчас стоят примерно $7,643 трлн (при цене в $1 256 за тройскую унцию), при этом порядка 35% от мировых запасов на сумму в $2,600 трлн торгуется на рынке. По некоторым оценкам к тому моменту, когда биткоин перестанет майниться, будет доступно для операций порядка 18 млн монет (за вычетом навсегда потерянных битков). Итого получается, что если в главную криптовалюту инвестируют столько же, сколько и в золото, то курс составит порядка $144 444 за монету.
Разумеется, это просто попытка рассчитать стоимость биткоина — актива, на который видимо не распространяются как законы рынка, так и логики. Как будут развиваться события в будущем — неизвестно, но пока цена за биткоин в $1 000 000 кажется такой же маловероятной как и выполнение Джоном Макафи своего обещания.
Источник: cryptocurrency.tech
Добавить комментарий
Похожие записи
Таргетинг в контекстной рекламе Яндекса и Google: обзор возможностей
Рекламные системы Яндекс.Директ и Google AdWords предоставляют широкие возможности таргетинга…
Запрет на ICO в Китае привел к распространению мошеннических альткоинов
На этой неделе Синьхуа, официальное информационное агентство правительства Китайской Народной…
Google AdWords выкатил обновленный Планировщик ключевых слов
Google AdWords запускает обновленный Планировщик ключевых слов в новом интерфейсе…
By using a similar method, aspiring gamers can improve their
possibilities of success and maximize their enjoyment of the gaming experience.
High rollers exemplify the significance of setting limits and adhering to them.
Aspiring gamers should establish clear boundaries for
his or her playing actions, guaranteeing they do not exceed their monetary capability.
This approach fosters accountable gaming and minimizes the chance of serious losses.
At on-line casinos you’ll find out specific requirements that make you qualify
to be part of the VIP club. You can play sure video games and spend sure quantities to qualify for high curler status.
Apart From offering larger betting limits, offshore gambling sites are a beautiful choice for playing real money on-line slots due to their bespoke loyalty applications.
These VIP packages reward high-stakes gameplay with precedence payouts, private VIP managers, and plenty of extra enticing perks.
If a casino designates a personal account supervisor for tailored provides, we take that
into consideration too.
It’s simple to search out a normal online on line casino, but how will we
search out those that are excellent for high rollers?
Right Here at BetVIP, we’ve vetted hundreds of gaming websites to uncover these which allow their gamers to wager extra and win more, with higher limits and minimal
caps on payouts. Highroller casino bonuses typically require giant minimum deposits
of $500 or more, but the quantity varies relying on the location and the
particular promotion. The high curler online casinos beneficial on this article settle
for a extensive range of trusted payment choices.
These include e-wallets, prepaid cards, online bank transfers,
and credit and debit cards.
In distinction, there are also casinos with invite-only VIP techniques, awarding the VIP standing to high-spending players at their own discretion.
To be invited to on-line casino VIP applications or get to the top stage of loyalty
schemes, you have to deposit and wager frequently. Moreover, these deposits and
bets have to be higher and consistent with the casino’s requirements for
attaining VIP status. They reward you for enjoying regularly at that casino, and the
extra you play (and wager), the more points you will earn.
Those points assist you to climb the VIP ranges to unlock
better bonuses and perks. A well-liked cryptocurrency on line casino
geared in the direction of high rollers, Fortunate Block
provides a VIP Club with 11 levels, offering cashback and exclusive rewards.
It presents high roller bonuses and unique tournaments, with VIPs
benefiting from «superfast cashouts with priority approvals and no caps» on crypto withdrawals.
If you spend more than the typical gamer and play regularly, then the VIP applications are value asking
for. Therefore, it is really only value it when you play regularly and for
a lot of money. The high quality of those presents and luxuries
ranges depending on how much money and business the customers deliver the casinos.
At a base stage, you could obtain a birthday bonus at an internet casino
or a complimentary drink on the home at a brick and mortar casino.
The patrons who play with bigger sums of cash,
or high rollers, will receive loads more perks, because the casino operators go
to extraordinary lengths to make sure that all their wants
are met. Right Here, we’ll have a glance at a few of the glorious perks
you’ll be able to receive as certainly one of these
excessive rolling patrons.
For excessive rollers gambling is not just leisure, however a struggle against luck and odds.
They are interested in the casino pleasure of the game and the potential for an enormous win, and it is this excitement that makes the world of high rollers fascinating to outsiders.
If you’re on the lookout for more than just
one other on line casino, and wish an experience that respects the
way you play, VipStake is the neatest place to begin. VipStake maintains a strong 4.6/5 score throughout platforms like its own site, Critiques.io, and Product Hunt — with users persistently praising its
value for high-stakes gamers. When anything you need is at your disposal in an opulent haven like Las Vegas, life is exceptionally shiny.
We’re additionally massive followers of the gathering of luxury suites on the Venetian and Palazzo.
Palazzo’s Chairman Suite is a 6,367-square foot terraced wonder befitting
of a Venetian prince containing its personal personal pool, spa,
sauna, and steam room.
You put in all the exhausting work and all of the analysis just to have it all taken down because you couldn’t
be bothered to learn. That is exactly why understanding the terms
and conditions hooked up to bonuses at casinos is necessary to maximise
worth. As a tout, a number of the terms that should be taken a keen have a glance at while checking the positioning are wagering necessities, game contribution, expiry dates, maximum wager limit, and
withdrawal guess limits.
There are two ways to turn out to be a VIP player depending
on the online casino VIP packages obtainable. Some
casinos have open-for-all loyalty applications the place gamers can gather loyalty points as
they deposit and place bets.
Most of them additionally supply the best online casino loyalty programs
you could examine in the related article. Loyalty packages
usually function on a tier-based system, with essentially the most desirable advantages
reserved for players at the highest degree. Acquiring the highest
standing often calls for an funding in the $500,000 range, however promotions such
as tier credit multipliers greatly reduce the precise quantity gamers must
wager. Excessive roller casinos reward gamers who consistently
wager large sums of cash. Mid-stakes gamblers enjoy comps like lodge
stays and birthday dinners at collaborating resorts,
however the perks are more extravagant for the most important spenders.
Medication with the energetic ingredient trenbolone are anabolic steroids that are widely utilized in medication and
sports. They belong to a bunch of medicine that have
androgenic and anabolic properties.Anabolic index of Trenbolone- 500.
In the realm of bodybuilding, «Buy Trenbolone UK» is your golden ticket to accelerated positive aspects and unmatched power. With its muscle-building, fat-burning, and endurance-boosting prowess, Trenbolone is the key to unlocking your body’s full potential. But remember, the journey to realize isn’t just about the destination – it’s in regards to the smart decisions you make along the means in which.
This is an International Pharmacy, with over 5 years of on-line steroid shop expertise we all know how to get the greatest quality steroids to our customers with finest dose. In order for the drug trenbolone to retain its basic properties, its therapeutic results must be correctly saved. It is recommended to store trenbolone injections in a cool place so that they preserve their construction and useful properties for longer. And it is advisable to take away the ampoule from the packaging so that no mild falls on it. Earlier Than taking the drug trenbolone, it’s worth investigating the unwanted aspect effects. If you follow all the recommendations and do not exceed the dosage, no disagreeable circumstances will happen. If they do occur, they are delicate in nature and disappear completely on their own over time.
Elevated muscle mass and power are two of Trenbolone Enanthate 200mg’s key advantages. It aids in enhancing the body’s protein synthesis, which is important for the development of muscular tissues. It can even enhance protein synthesis, resulting in sooner recovery instances and increased muscle progress.
As early as the ’80s, bodybuilders used trenbolone to extend their muscle dimension. Selecting the Nouveaux Trenbolone Combo 200mg is more than simply choosing a efficiency enhancer; it’s making a commitment to excellence. To totally harness the potential of the Nouveaux Trenbolone, it’s crucial to strategy its use with a technique encompassing optimum diet, rigorous training, and sufficient relaxation.
Initial time or new customers must use Trenbolone for 4 weeks till they see how their body reacts as nicely as reacts. After a number of months on that exact cycle they might up it to eight weeks and after that sooner or later to 12 if their body could handle it. The typical dosage of a selected Trenbolone cycle is zero.5 mg to 2mg day by day. Though It appears decreased contrasted to the injectable doses but taking Trenbolone medication are extraordinarily highly effective and in addition protected. Experience the facility of Trenbolone Acetate and unlock unparalleled muscle growth, energy, and efficiency.
Users of Trenbolone Acetate can anticipate speedy muscle progress, increased energy, and improved vascularity. It is usually administered by way of frequent injections, and the recommended dosage and cycle size can differ depending on individual objectives and experience. Trenbolone has a high anabolic exercise, it is five times greater than that of testosterone.
Tri-Tren 150 operates by way of the mixture of three trenbolone esters—acetate, enanthate, and hexahydrobenzylcarbonate. This diverse mix ensures a sustained launch, optimizing anabolic processes for muscle progress and development. Observe the beneficial dosage supplied by your healthcare skilled or fitness advisor. Selecting Nouveaux Ltd’s Trenbolone Combo 200mg means entrusting your bodybuilding journey to a model that stands for quality and reliability. Be certain to observe the recommendations of medical doctors and the correct dosage and dosing, otherwise unpleasant results may happen.
For the low season Trenbolone stacks efficiently with Testosterone, Dianabol, Anadrol and Deca Durabolin. Some athletes choose a Trenbolone just cycle of tablets at one hundred fifty to 300mg weekly. It is due to the reality that Trenbolone could be very suppressive to organic Testosterone production, which is why Trenbolone simply patterns aren’t actually safe for people to make the most of. The advantages of Trenbolone are unequalled compared by different steroid and its power is undoubted. It lacks an uncertainty, the most generally purchased steroid available on the market.
The primary use of trenbolone in veterinary medicine is to improve muscle development in animals similar to cattle. Nevertheless, despite its veterinary use, trenbolone is typically used in sports activities to increase muscle mass and enhance athletic performance. However, it should be noted that buying trenbolone with no prescription is against the law within the Uk and might have severe authorized consequences. Furthermore, taking anabolic steroids can result in serious health issues.
Usually, the duration of trenbolone use can range between 6 and 12 weeks. NEW YORK, April eleven, (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — When it involves achieving unimaginable muscle progress ends in bodybuilding, few steroids are as highly effective and revered as Trenbolone. In Contrast with Deca Durabolin, Trenbolone has a much larger anabolic and androgenic rating of 500, respectively. To acknowledge the stamina of this tablets, do evaluate Trenbolone to Testosterone that has an androgenic ranking and in addition an anabolic score of 100 each. It means that Trenbolone is five times much more efficient than Testosterone. So truly, there is no anabolic steroid more essential for professional athletes in comparability with the Trenbolone, that features every little thing from base Trenbolone to Tren E vs Tren A. Yet do not stress, since there is trenbolone possibility from crazybulk that has no opposed effects, it’s Trenorol.